A Graphical Analysis on the EU Dairy Prospects

The medium-term outlook of the dairy sector prospects for the EU market 2015-2025, is presented in the graphical report followed. The analysis is based on a on a set of coherent macroeconomic assumptions according to the recent European Commission report.

The projections assume a continuation of current agricultural and trade policies. These assumptions imply relatively smooth market developments while in reality markets tend to be much more volatile.

The outlook therefore, is not a forecast. More precisely, the projections correspond to the average trend agricultural markets are expected to follow in a given macroeconomic environment were policies to remain unchanged.

In summary

  • Milk prices are expected to recover moderately and in a short time, before rising further on average about 360 €/ton during the last five years of that period and in accordance with the expectations of the global dairy market.
  • In the next 10 years, about half of the additional quantities of milk to be produced in the EU could potentially be used to produce SMP (skimmed milk powder) and more than 30% in the production of cheese.
  • Cheese production will increase by more than 1 million tons and the success story will come from the domestic market.
  • The global yoghurt market will surpass $55 billion, split as follows: Europe 39% Asia / Pacific 28%, North America 15% South America 13% and the Middle East / Africa 5%.
  • The Greek yogurt phenomenon will remain driving force behind the growth of the category in the international market.

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2 thoughts on “A Graphical Analysis on the EU Dairy Prospects”

  1. Very interesting article Petros! Is there any information concerning small ruminants production? Sheep and goat milk/meat production is a very important economical factor in terms of primary production sector in Greece. Especially in the region of Crete.

    1. The data refer to the EU and come from the latest EC report. I guess that you should ask the Hellenic authorities for the info you are looking for.

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